The NATO summit in Warsaw this past weekend provided a modest but important boost to a Europe in crisis. Allies demonstrated cohesion and unity in the face of diverse threats to their security. They took steps to bolster NATO’s deterrence and resilience that would have once been unthinkable. These steps will strengthen America’s most important allies and enhance the stability of a Europe critical to U.S. interests.
At first glance, the major deliverables of the summit are all fairly modest. But the three major deliverables below reveal important progress. They show an alliance moving in a positive direction and gradually adjusting to the realities of a new security environment marked by long-term strategic challenges.
NATO agreed to four new rotating battalions in the Baltic states and Poland. NATO critics will ask how four rotating battalions of roughly 600-1000 troops each can deter a much larger Russian military force. Some have referred to the battalions as ‘speed bump’’ in the event of a Russian invasion. Others will fault European powers like France and Italy for not taking command of the battalions. Still others will argue that the Alliance should have made the deployments permanent.
The fact of the matter is that these deployments – which will be led by the UK, U.S., Germany, and Canada – represent an extraordinary accomplishment for NATO. It would have been unthinkable even two years ago to imagine NATO taking such steps to reinforce its eastern flank to deter Russia. Better yet, two of the battalions will be commanded by Canada and Germany – traditionally dovish allies. The UK will command a third battalion, showing its enduring commitment to Europe’s security post-Brexit. While the size of the force is modest indeed, NATO’s new Enhanced Forward Presence sends an important signal of allied unity and a commitment to deterrence. A U.S. push for a permanent or larger presence would only have divided the alliance, and cost extra money and deployable forces allies simply do not have.
NATO adds Montenegro as its 29th member. NATO admitted the tiny Balkan country of Montenegro as the first new member to join since 2009. NATO skeptics will ask what capabilities a country of 2,000 troops under arms brings to the Alliance. But the admission of Montenegro to NATO was a huge accomplishment given Russia’s vociferous opposition to NATO enlargement. Just two weeks after Brexit, Montenegro’s entry to NATO sends a powerful signal to aspirant members of NATO and a crisis-stricken European Union that the Euro-Atlantic enlargement process is not dead. And it undermines Russia’s deliberate strategy of preventing former Communist states from moving toward the West.
NATO and the EU agree to cooperate more closely on defense and security. For over a decade, NATO and the EU have been blocked from closer cooperation as a result of bureaucratic rivalries and theology. The NATO-EU dispute had become increasingly absurd in the context of Europe’s problems of migration, terrorism, cyberwarfare, and hybrid threats – areas which lie more under the mandate of the EU than NATO. The demonstration of renewed will to foster NATO-EU cooperation offers a real prospect of bolstering Europe’s security and resilience in the face of 21st century threats. And it shows renewed will among European countries to put theology aside in the face of real threats to their security.
Critics will find no shortage of shortcomings to point to at the summit. Too many allies in Europe are still spending too little on defense, despite a general upward trend in spending. The Alliance is not doing enough to bolster security on its periphery, particularly in the Mideast and North Africa. NATO remains only peripherally involved in the anti-ISIS coalition.
All of these are legitimate critiques. Much work remains to be done. But Warsaw was never intended to represent a ”mission accomplished” moment for NATO. Instead, Warsaw is the start of a long process of allies adjusting their perceptions, assumptions, budgets, and commitment toward a new security environment marked by long-term strategic challenges from Russia and the Middle East. From a long-term perspective, Europe is gearing up to take on a larger share of the security burden in its own neighborhood.
Persistent U.S. leadership will be required to keep European allies focused on confronting these external strategic challenges even as Europe grapples with internal matters like Brexit. NATO will convene a summit in Brussels in 2017 to welcome a new U.S. president to the Alliance. The good news is that the new American president will inherit an Alliance generally moving in the right direction after years of drift. What remains to be seen is if the new U.S. president will build on that momentum through proactive leadership and engagement, or instead, throw it away through a policy of isolationism and retreat.